(Scypre.com) – Germany’s conservative party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is poised to win the most votes in a state election for the first time since World War II, signaling a significant challenge to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling center-left coalition.
Exit polls from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF indicate that AfD has secured approximately 31% to 33% of the vote in the east German state of Thuringia, placing it ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which garnered 24.5%. Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) appears to have crossed the 5% threshold necessary to enter the state parliaments.
In Saxony, another state in eastern Germany, the AfD is nearly tied with the CDU, obtaining around 30% to 31% of the vote compared to the CDU’s 31.5% to 32%, according to projection polls.
Despite the AfD’s electoral success, all other political parties have pledged not to form coalitions with it, raising questions about whether the party can translate its victory into actual governing power.
The AfD’s rise in Thuringia marks a significant milestone for a party founded in 2013. The results are troubling for Scholz, who faces re-election in 12 months as his party trails behind a surging AfD.
Although the AfD’s strong performance was anticipated by pollsters, the party has been plagued by controversies, including being monitored by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency for suspected extremism. Party leader Björne Höcke has been twice found guilty by a German court of deliberately using Nazi rhetoric, though he has appealed these rulings.
In May, AfD’s top candidate, Maximilian Krah, withdrew from campaigning after defending the SS, the Nazi regime’s paramilitary force, in an interview with an Italian newspaper. Other controversies include one of Krah’s aides being charged with espionage for China and another candidate facing allegations of accepting bribes from a pro-Russian news outlet.
Despite these controversies, the AfD has gained substantial support, especially among younger voters. Initially established as an anti-euro movement, the AfD shifted its focus to issues of Islam and immigration, gaining popularity at both local and national levels, particularly in the former East Germany. The region, once part of communist East Germany, exhibits higher levels of skepticism towards NATO and Germany’s support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
In the June European Parliament elections, the AfD finished second in Germany, and its success in the state elections reflects growing dissatisfaction with Scholz’s governing coalition. The coalition, comprising the center-left Social Democrats, the environmentalist Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats, has struggled with issues such as the war in Ukraine, slow economic growth, the transition to green energy, and renewed debates on migration following a recent terrorist attack.
The AfD capitalized on declining support for the ruling parties, solidifying its position as a formidable political force. This emergence could destabilize Germany’s mainstream political landscape and force other parties into uncomfortable alliances. If the AfD secures a third of the seats in either Thuringia or Saxony, it will have the power to block votes requiring two-thirds majorities.
Looking ahead to next year’s general elections, the AfD is well-positioned to further challenge the status quo. Nationally, it is polling as Germany’s second-largest party with 18% support, surpassing Scholz’s SPD.
With 12 months remaining before the general elections, the AfD will continue its quest for greater influence, while its opponents will use the state election results as a rallying point to counter the conservative party’s advance.