
At the start of the 2021 military crackdown on anti-coup protesters in Myanmar, members of the emerging resistance movement questioned the world community’s response and what it would take for action to be taken. Despite the coup being over two years ago, pro-democracy protesters claim they have not received a satisfactory answer. On April 11, 2023, the country’s military dropped bombs on a gathering in Pazigyi, resulting in approximately 100 deaths, including children. Although these attacks are not unusual, they are not usually so deadly. The day prior, the Myanmar air force bombed Falam, killing 11 people. Since the civil war began, over 3,240 civilians and pro-democracy activists have been killed, according to the human rights organization Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. In response, a strong resistance movement has emerged, with an estimated 65,000 fighters employing guerrilla tactics and ambushes against military targets.
The military in Myanmar may have been misled by the experiences of neighboring Thailand, where a coup in 2014 was met with only sporadic protests and no armed resistance. In contrast, after the Myanmar military takeover in 2021, younger generations who grew up during the democratic decade after 2010 fiercely resisted and were skeptical of the military’s promises to restore democracy. Peaceful protests were met with live ammunition, and pro-democracy activists turned to armed resistance.
In response, many young people underwent military training and fought back under the umbrella resistance group, People’s Defense Forces, resulting in a protracted counter-coup that has humiliated the Myanmar army. Despite the military’s vow to annihilate resistance groups, the Bamar majority and minority ethnic groups such as Karen, Chin, Kachin, Rakhine, and Karenni are unifying against military rule, and resistance fighters have widespread support throughout the country.
As a result, the Myanmar military’s promised elections and handover of power to a civilian government cannot be scheduled due to growing instability, according to Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing. The military is reportedly facing an acute shortage of new recruits, and people in the Bamar heartlands, including Sagaing where the April 11 massacre occurred, are refusing to let their sons join the Myanmar army. Whether Myanmar soldiers will lose the will to fight remains to be seen.
According to pro-democracy activists, internal dynamics in Myanmar have been largely overlooked by the international community. The conflict in Ukraine has shifted global focus away from the worsening situation in Myanmar, causing disagreements among global powers who would normally be aligned in their approach. Despite statements in support of democracy and condemnation of killings from the United Nations and the U.S., concrete action has been limited to individual and entity sanctions, falling short of the demands of human rights groups. No comprehensive global arms embargo has been implemented, nor has Myanmar been cut off from foreign currency revenues or banned from purchasing jet fuel. Oil and gas companies from countries such as the U.S. continue to provide revenue to Myanmar’s generals, allowing them to fund the military. This reluctance to apply more pressure on Myanmar’s military is viewed by the resistance movement as global collusion and has the potential to prolong the violence.