
(Scypre.com) – As Election Day approaches, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is intensifying. According to the latest national NBC News poll, both candidates are tied with 48% support from registered voters, signaling a highly competitive contest. Trump has regained momentum following his performance in last month’s debate, rallying Republicans behind him after lagging in the polls. Harris, on the other hand, has experienced a decline in her popularity, particularly among independents and younger voters.
"VP Kamala Harris had a five point lead in our last poll taken a month ago, right after the debate. That lead has all but evaporated. Willie, take a look at this new head to head matchup, 48% to 48%. That is what we call a deadlocked race." – @KWelkerNBC on a new @NBCNews poll. pic.twitter.com/HBLPS0ybtv
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) October 13, 2024
The poll, conducted from October 4 to October 8, highlights the deadlock between Trump and Harris, reflecting the heightened polarization of the electorate. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt commented on the results, noting that “any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” and described the race as a “dead heat.” Meanwhile, Republican pollster Bill McInturff cited “headwinds” for Harris, pointing to concerns about her perceived continuation of President Joe Biden’s policies. This, along with voters’ more favorable view of Trump’s presidency compared to Biden’s, has narrowed the contest.
With 10% of voters indicating that they may change their minds before Election Day, and a small percentage of undecided voters, the outcome remains uncertain. The possibility of third-party candidates also looms large, with Trump gaining a slight advantage when they are included in polling. McInturff emphasized the importance of turnout, noting that slight shifts in voter participation across key demographics could tip the scales in such a tight race.
Harris faces the challenge of defining herself beyond Biden’s presidency, while Trump must persuade voters that his often chaotic first term will not hinder his ability to govern. “The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” said Horwitt.
The NBC News poll also revealed a stark gender gap between the two candidates. Harris enjoys a 14-point lead among women (55% to Trump’s 41%), while men favor Trump by 16 points (56% to Harris’ 40%). Among other key demographics, Harris holds a strong lead with Black voters and younger voters, while Trump performs well with rural voters and white voters, particularly those without college degrees.
Independent voters remain split, with Harris holding a slight edge (44% to Trump’s 40%). However, a significant portion of independents has yet to commit to either candidate, further contributing to the uncertainty of the race.
Harris’ decline in popularity since September is notable, particularly after a surge following her debate performance earlier in the year. Her favorability rating has dropped to 43%, with 49% of voters viewing her unfavorably. This marks a reversal from her positive ratings in September. Trump’s favorability, while similarly divided, has reached its highest level in the NBC News poll since he left office, with 43% of voters viewing him positively and 51% negatively.
Perceptions of the Biden and Trump presidencies also differ. Only 25% of voters believe Biden’s policies have helped them, while 45% feel they have been harmful. In contrast, 44% of voters say Trump’s policies benefited them, with 31% stating they were detrimental. Voters’ concerns about the candidates largely revolve around the fear that Harris will continue Biden’s policies or that Trump will return to the controversial aspects of his first term.
Abortion has emerged as a key issue in the election, with 22% of voters identifying it as the issue they feel most strongly about. Harris holds a significant advantage over Trump on this issue, with a 19-point lead in voter trust on handling abortion. Other issues where Harris performs well include health care and overall competence. Trump, meanwhile, has strong leads on immigration and border security, managing the economy, and addressing the situation in the Middle East.
Turnout will be critical in this razor-thin race. The poll suggests that if Republicans can mobilize their base — particularly men, white voters, and those without college degrees — Trump could gain an edge. Conversely, if Democrats can inspire higher turnout among women, college-educated white voters, and voters of color, Harris could secure a narrow lead. Both campaigns will need to focus on energizing their respective bases while swaying undecided voters in the final weeks leading up to Election Day.
The NBC News poll offers a snapshot of the current state of the race, but with so many variables still in play, the outcome remains far from certain.