
(Scypre.com) – Americans eagerly anticipated two pivotal political statements this summer. The first was pop sensation Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris after Harris clinched the Democratic nomination, following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race. Swift called Harris a “steady-handed, gifted leader” after a highly publicized debate with Donald Trump.
The second awaited statement came from Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old history professor at American University, whose election predictions have been uncannily accurate for decades, with only one miss in 2000. Using his 13 “keys” model, Lichtman earlier this month predicted a Harris victory over Trump in the 2024 election, causing shockwaves in the political world. Lichtman stated he has never received as much attention for his prediction as he has this year. He attributed this to the high stakes of the 2024 election, with Biden stepping down before the Democratic convention and Trump facing 34 felony convictions.
Lichtman’s prediction method is simple: if six or more of his “keys” go against the incumbent party, they will lose. So far, Harris has avoided the loss of critical keys, like facing a significant primary challenge, or dealing with a third-party candidate after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race. Lichtman argued that even significant events, such as Trump’s attempted assassination or JD Vance’s controversial comments, haven’t altered the fundamentals of his model.
Lichtman’s “keys” model goes beyond typical polling. He attributes America’s fascination with political predictions to its broader obsession with instant gratification. He compares it to sports talk, Oscar predictions, and even celebrity gossip. “We live in a society of predictions,” Lichtman said, noting that people are always trying to foresee outcomes in every aspect of life.
Despite the excitement surrounding his predictions, Lichtman remains humble. He finds the greatest joy not from media attention but from everyday people who admire his work—security guards, Uber drivers, and waitstaff who express their appreciation. Still, Lichtman faces criticism, including accusations of bias or being a “Democratic tool,” which he has been accustomed to since his first prediction in 1982, when he called Ronald Reagan’s reelection.
As the 2024 election looms closer, Lichtman holds firm on his prediction of a Harris victory. He explains that significant factors like the economy, the absence of a major third-party candidate, and the lack of sustained social unrest favor Harris. Even controversial moments, such as Trump’s assassination attempt, haven’t swayed the professor’s forecast. To Lichtman, it’s about long-term indicators, not short-term drama.
Apart from politics, Lichtman continues to pursue other passions. He’s been a runner for over 60 years and recently won medals at the Maryland Senior Olympics, qualifying for the national competition. His wife, Karyn Strickler, is also an athlete and political activist. The couple shares a passion for sports and politics, often engaging in intense one-on-one basketball games. Lichtman hosts a YouTube show discussing politics with his son, Sam, as part of his lifelong commitment to political analysis.
In the end, Lichtman’s predictions are more than just an academic exercise—they have become an integral part of America’s electoral process, and his forecast of a Harris victory has once again captured the nation’s attention.