(Scypre.com) – In a tragic aviation incident, an Azerbaijani Airlines Embraer 190 crashed on Wednesday, killing 38 and injuring all 29 survivors. The flight was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, when it diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, for unclear reasons and crashed during an attempted landing approximately 3 kilometers from the airport. Shocking cellphone footage shared online captured the aircraft in a steep descent before it collided with the ground, erupting into a fiery explosion.
BREAKING:
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 26, 2024
Russia shot down the Azeri passenger plane, killing 38.
Euronews has received a confirmation from Azerbaijani government sources that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused yesterday’s Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash.
The missile was fired at Flight 8432 during a… pic.twitter.com/8dc9Ewe4bv
National Mourning in Azerbaijan
Thursday was marked by mourning across Azerbaijan as flags were lowered to half-staff, and a moment of silence was observed nationwide. Citizens paused as ships and trains sounded their horns in remembrance of the victims. President Ilham Aliyev expressed his condolences, stating it was premature to determine the cause of the crash but cited reports of worsening weather conditions that forced the flight to divert.
Preliminary Investigations and Emerging Theories
Initial investigations from Russia’s civil aviation authority suggested that a bird strike led to an onboard emergency, prompting the flight’s diversion to Aktau. However, emerging evidence has shifted attention to a potentially more alarming cause. Aviation experts noted damage to the plane’s tail section consistent with shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile (SAM). Mark Zee of OPSGroup, a global aviation risk-monitoring organization, stated that the likelihood of a missile strike was between 90% and 99%.
Yan Matveyev, a Russian military analyst, highlighted that the visible damage matched shrapnel patterns from small-scale SAMs, such as those deployed by the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system. His analysis was supported by Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, which issued alerts warning carriers about heightened risks of air defense activity in Russia.
Possible Drone Interference and Air Defense Misfire
The crash occurred amidst heightened drone activity in the North Caucasus region. Ukrainian drones have reportedly targeted Grozny and nearby areas in recent months, with Russian authorities claiming to have intercepted attacks as recently as Wednesday. Experts speculate that Russian air defenses might have mistaken the Azerbaijani plane for a hostile drone, firing on it unintentionally.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news outlet with government ties, supported the theory, alleging that the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense missile near Grozny. The outlet criticized Russian authorities for failing to close the Grozny airport during the drone activity and questioned why the plane was not allowed to make an emergency landing at a closer location in Russia.
Questions About Flight Path and Emergency Response
The plane’s unusual flight path—traveling hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of landing at a closer Russian airport—has raised further questions. Matveyev speculated that the aircraft’s systems may have remained operational temporarily, leading the crew to believe a safe landing was possible. However, political or logistical restrictions might have influenced their decision to head toward Kazakhstan.
Official Responses and Continued Investigation
Russian authorities, including Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, have urged restraint, emphasizing the need for an official investigation before drawing conclusions. Similarly, Kazakh parliamentary speaker Maulen Ashimbayev dismissed premature allegations of air defense involvement, calling them baseless and unethical.
Officials from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia have refrained from speculating publicly, focusing instead on the ongoing investigation. The crash involved passengers from multiple countries, including 42 Azerbaijanis, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry has flown several survivors to Moscow for medical treatment.
A Grim Reminder of Airspace Risks
Aviation experts like Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson view this incident as a stark reminder of the perils associated with flying in conflict zones. “Despite our efforts to monitor and warn, lives were tragically lost in a manner that could have been avoided,” he remarked.
As investigators piece together the events leading to the crash, questions about air defense protocols, pilot decisions, and international coordination will remain central to understanding this devastating accident.