These People Are Running Against Biden

(Scypre.com) – Calls are increasing within the Democratic ranks to seek an alternative to President Biden ahead of the upcoming election. As the first primary contests loom just a few months away, concerns arise about whether there is sufficient time to find a viable replacement.

In essence, the answer is no, but the clock is ticking.

For a change to occur, Biden would either need to confront a significant challenge within the party’s primaries promptly or make the decision to step aside later on. Either course of action would mark a historic event in the modern political era.

Option 1: The Democratic Primary


Democrats have an established process to identify a new candidate for the general election through the presidential primary. This involves Democrat voters casting their ballots from January to June next year to select a presidential nominee.

While Biden faces competition for the nomination from figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, polling indicates a lack of enthusiasm for these alternatives among Democrat voters.

In this scenario, a prominent candidate appealing to the Democratic base would need to come forward. The most probable contender is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, known for his engagement with red states, advocacy for a national gun referendum, and a challenge to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for a debate on Fox News.

Reports suggest that Biden’s inner circle increasingly views Newsom as a disruptive factor, although publicly they acknowledge him as a significant advocate.

Rumors are also circulating about Michigan’s popular governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who emphasized generational change during his 2020 presidential campaign and has maintained a visible profile while serving in the Biden administration.

Any of these potential candidates wanting to mount a challenge have a few weeks remaining to enter the race without jeopardizing their ability to win. However, according to standard rules, many states require candidates to file a declaration by a specified date to appear on their primary ballot. Nevada, with its deadline on October 15, holds the earliest filing date, just a month away.

Fourteen more states have filing deadlines before the year’s end. Each state allocates nominating delegates to candidates, so delaying entry into the race diminishes the total potential delegates a candidate can receive.

Nevada, being one of the earliest states in the primary calendar, exerts a significant influence on the race’s trajectory. While filing a declaration takes only minutes, launching a viable presidential campaign demands much more. Candidates must seek donors, hire staff, formulate policies, craft messaging, and devise a winning strategy.

As this intricate process unfolds behind the scenes, media speculation about a new candidate often precedes their official announcement by several weeks or even months. Presently, there’s no indication from reports that any notable candidate is preparing a bid.

In the modern era, an incumbent president has never lost his party’s nomination when seeking a second term.

Option 2: The Democratic National Convention


Biden’s destiny is also within his control.

While he will appear on the primary ballot and stands as the most probable candidate to secure the nomination, he can opt to withdraw from the race at any juncture.

The opportune moment to initiate this transition would be during the Democratic National Convention in August. Delegates accrue to candidates during the earlier primaries in the year, but the definitive vote for the presidential candidate occurs during the convention.

If Biden garners a majority of delegates but desires to step aside, he could utilize a speech before or during the convention to endorse another candidate. According to Democratic Party rules, pledged delegates aren’t obligated to vote for their designated candidate but are encouraged to “reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” giving Biden’s endorsement considerable influence.

In a scenario with multiple candidates, if a majority aligns with Biden’s preference, that candidate would emerge as the Democratic presidential nominee. This would be a deviation from the usual nominating process, resembling what’s commonly known as a contested convention.

If, in this hypothetical scenario, Biden fails to persuade a majority, and no candidate secures the first ballot at the convention, a brokered convention would unfold. Delegates are released from their commitments, and influential figures within the nominating process would attempt to sway delegates to support their favored candidate.

Rounds of voting would persist until a candidate achieves a majority.

Even the most orderly version of this process can become messy. Biden would need to decide between endorsing his own vice president, next in line for his position but lacking popularity with voters, or a less recognized and untested alternative.

A brokered convention would result in chaos. The Democrats would appear divided and lacking direction during their crucial week in the spotlight, with less than three months remaining until the general election.

Contested and brokered conventions are infrequent in the modern era. The last convention that approached a “contested” status was in 1980 during the Democratic race, when Senator Ted Kennedy attempted to challenge President Jimmy Carter for the nomination. The Republicans similarly neared a contested convention in 1976, a contest between then-Governor Ronald Reagan and President Gerald Ford. Both parties experienced brokered conventions in 1952.

All of this underscores the likelihood of a second Biden run in 2024. Should a candidate wish to alter this outcome, they must act promptly and recognize the unparalleled challenge they would undertake.